Neues » The quarterback for the Chicago Bears has had some good

games and some bad games Marcus Cooper Jersey , and he currently has a passer rating of 97.1, good for 14th in the NFL among quarterbacks with at least 53 attempts. That might seem like a strange cutoff, but it’s a number NFL Next Gen Stats determines by taking 15 attempts and multiplying it by the number of weeks of play, then dividing by 2. So, it’s basically a decent ballpark for “a quarterback who has played in at least half of the games so far,” but there will be some margin for error. Right now, 38 quarterbacks qualify. Being ranked #14 out of 38 isn’t bad, but passer rating only tells a very small part of the story.Obviously, watching the game video is a great way of assessing a player, but two problems emerge. First, there’s the dreaded confirmation bias. Simply put, I will tend to see only what I want to see, or at least only what I expect to see. Second, there’s the fact that it’s easy to lose track of what other players do in similar situations. I notice that Trubisky misses an open receiver down the sideline, but I don’t have an honest sense of how many players actually do complete a similar pass in a similar situation.My impression up until this point has been that Trubisky is doing better when Nagy sets him up as a game manager and that he’s missing some easy throws at critical moments, especially when he takes shots deep downfield. I was curious if the stats backed me up.They don’t. To be fair, the stats don’t disprove that impression, necessarily, but they also really don’t lend themselves to that sort of interpretation, either.Let’s begin with my impression of Trubisky’s success being from more “game management” plays. Next Gen doesn’t have a game manager score, exactly http://www.thebearslockerroom.com/authentic-kyle-fuller-jersey , but they do have one interesting number that helps get a read on the exact opposite tendency. They track what percentage of each quarterback’s throws are into tight windows, defined as throws where there is a defender within 1 yard of the receiver at the time of the completion (or incompletion). Nearly one-fifth of Trubisky’s throws are into tight windows (19%).Only six quarterbacks are more “aggressive” than that, per Next Gen Stats. Of those six, only Ryan Fitzpatrick has a higher actual passer rating than Trubisky. Likewise, Trubisky’s attempts are past the 1st down marker a lot. Next Gen keeps track of Air Yards to Sticks, which “shows the amount of Air Yards ahead or behind the first down marker on all attempts for a passer.” Trubisky is 6th in this regard, at +0.5 (just behind fellow sophomore QBs Patrick Mahomes at +0.7 and Deshaun Watson at +0.6) which matches both the aggression shown in the previous stat and my own sense of the number of times he takes deep shots down field, even if he doesn’t actually connect on those attempts. However, two more stats are worth noting before moving on—Longest Completed Air Distance (how far the ball has traveled through the air in a pass) and Completion Percentage Above Expectation. That latter stat is a little complex, and it requires a lot of processing to even arrive at the score. Essentially, it measures how the passer’s actual completion percentage compares to what would be expected based on completion probability, or “the probability of a pass completion, based on numerous factors such as receiver separation from the nearest defender, where the receiver is on the field, the separation the passer had at time of throw from the nearest pass rusher, and more.”Trubisky’s 60.7 LCAD is the sixth-highest among qualified passers, narrowly edging out Aaron Rodgers’ 60.3 LCAD. So, he actually can connect on bombs. However, are they the exception or the rule?Strangely, despite all of my frustration with him, Trubisky’s +/- on Completion Percentage Above Expectation is +1.4% Womens Bryce Callahan Jersey , good for 14th in the league. That number is worth repeating for clarity—compared to the average completion rating for the types of throws he is attempting, Trubisky is actually connecting on his passes slightly more often than would be expected. I don’t know enough about Next Gen’s raw data to tell you if he is more accurate to a degree that is statistically significant (my guess is he’s not), but even being functionally average in that regard is an improvement over the impression I have developed out of frustration.Taken collectively, these numbers suggest that #10 is is pushing the ball down field into aggressive windows, and he not simply succeeding when Nagy limits the playbook. Instead, he is playing aggressive football, and he is doing it at a rate that is between 6th and 14th in the NFL. That’s actually really good.Are some of these numbers padded by one really good game against Tampa Bay? Certainly. However, Trubisky has more than 200 passer attempts, and a number of his peers have also faced weak defenses, too. His passer rating has been “above” the average allowed by his opponents’ defenses on three occasions, and it has been below the average allowed on another three occasions. In short, he’s not simply a mediocre quarterback with inflated numbers from a single game. He is a growing quarterback making aggressive plays and accomplishing more than a number of fans expected from him.Perhaps most importantly, he is not only playing well when the game is simplified for him, and he is not relying on wide open receivers to make plays on his behalf. Instead, Trubisky is looking more and more like a complete passer who just needs time to refine his craft. We breakdown the latest 7-round mock draft from NFL.com to see what t hey think the Bears will do." Latest NewsNotesChicago Bears Draft 2019Mocking the Mocks: NFL.com’s 7-round Bears draftNew,207commentsWe breakdown the latest 7-round mock draft from NFL.com to see what t hey think the Bears will do.CDTWe’re only six days away from the start of the 2019 NFL Draft, and while the Chicago Bears aren’t slated to pick until the third round, who knows how the draft board will fall for general manager Ryan Pace. He has plenty of picks in 2020 that he could use to move up if there’s a guy he really covets, but I think it’s more likely he trades down from the 87th overall selection to acquire even more picks. Whatever he decides to do, we’ll have wall to wall coverage here at Windy City Gridiron and on our WCG podcast channel, so stay tuned. Today Josh Bellamy Jersey , we wanted to spotlight the latest seven-round mock draft at NFL.com to see how their draft analyst, Chad Reuter, has the Bears picking. You know the drill, check out what he had the Bears doing, then let us know if his selections are what you would do if you were making the picks for the Bears. Early in mock draft season, Hollins’ stock was being rated far lower, but his outstanding combine led many to reevaluate. He’s an outstanding athlete that some believe could be a better pro than he was with the Ducks, but he’ll need to be coached up to unlock his full potential. We haven’t talked much about Mattison, but at 5’11”, 221 pounds, he’s one of the bigger backs in this class. He’s not an explosive athlete, but he the receiving skills to fit into the Bears committee backfield.Forbes (6’5”, 308) ran a 4.9 forty yard dash at his pro day, and was just as impressive in his other drills and tests. He’s a three year starter at left tackle. but he projects to guard. In Reuter’s mock, he had a kicker going at pick 221, so I could see the Bears drafting the position for fear of a run. Seibert kicked and punted all four years for the Sooners, and he capped his time off by making a career best 89.5% of his field goals as a senior.Getting Fields in the seventh would be a great value pick for the Bears. His technique needs work, but you can’t teach 4.37 forty speed. Check out his full mock and let us know if you like the direction he took his Bears’ picks.