Off Topic » me for the most important pick of them all; th

The Chicago Blackhawks locked down the Wild, to go up 2-0 in their series, and the Pittsburgh Penguins controlled play against the New York Rangers, evening their series at one game apiece. Notes on Bryan Bickell, Brandon Saad, Matt Moulson, Kris Letang, Marc-Andre Fleury and more. BLACKHAWKS LOCK DOWN WILD The Chicago Blackhawks stifled the Minnesota Wild on the way to a 4-1 win in Game Two, taking a 2-0 series lead. LW Bryan Bickell picked up a goal and two assists to lead the Blackhawks attack and RW Marian Hossa had three assists. LW Brandon Saad also had a pair of goals for the Blackhawks and the performance of supporting cast wingers like Bickell and Saad reminded me of the recent article in the Chicago Sun-Times by Mark Lazerus, about Chicagos use of analytics. The article, without getting into specifics, discusses how the Blackhawks use all kinds of data in their player evaluation and one of the easiest ways to dismiss Chicagos use of analytics is that, hey, they have Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews -- its not analytics that make them a good team. Of course elite players matter more than a teams analytical approach, and Toews and Kane are great, but they are just two players. The rest of the roster still needs to be filled out and, for Chicago, that includes big-bodied wingers like Saad and Bickell. Bickell, who was a playoff hero last season, scoring nine goals and 17 points in 23 games as the Blackhawks won the Stanley Cup, finished the 2013-2014 regular season with 11 goals and 15 points in 59 games, so expectations were relatively low coming into this postseason. However, digging a little deeper into the numbers, we see that Bickell had a 58.0% Corsi during the regular season (second among Blackhawks forwards, behind Jonathan Toews) and was among the unluckiest forwards in the league with a 95.6% PDO (on-ice shooting plus save percentage); these underlying statistics suggested that Bickell might be due for better results and, with five goals and eight points in this years playoffs, hes getting better results. Before scoring two goals, including an empty-netter, Sunday, Saad had one goal in 32 career playoff games. The 21-year-old is also a strong possession player, and has seven points (2 G, 5 A) in eight playoff games this year. For a team that has Toews, Kane, Hossa and Patrick Sharp, getting big production out of Bickell and Saad is just about unfair. A little more on the Blackhawks forward lines: with Andrew Shaw hurt and Brandon Bollig scratched, the Blackhawks returned Kris Versteeg and Jeremy Morin to the lineup. Ben Smith had a rough game, in terms of puck possession, on for 29.4% (10 for, 24 against) of the 5-on-5 shot attempts when he was on the ice. The Blackhawks, without Smith on the ice, were getting 62.0% (31 for, 19 against) of the 5-on-5 shot attempts. With Jonathan Toews on the ice, the Blackhawks had 73.7% (14 for, five against) of the 5-on-5 shot attempts. With Toews off the ice, the Blackhawks had only 41.5% of the shot attempts, though there were obviously some score effects at play, since Chicago dominated possession in score close situations. The Wild have been having trouble generating offence against Chicago. Blackhawks G Corey Crawford stopped 18 of Minnesotas 19 shots Sunday, and hes stopped 48 of 51 (.941 SV%) in the first two games of this series. One of the more notable problem areas in the lineup for the Wild is LW Matt Moulson, who has one goal (on 20 shots) and one assist in nine playoff games and has, effectively, been taken out of an offensive role. No Wild player had a lower percentage of offensive zone starts in Game Two, but this one example stands in contrast to the Blackhawks forward depth. This wasnt expected to be a particularly close series and, through two games, the Blackhawks are living up to their favoured status. The Wild will have to find a way, perhaps with better matchups at home, to get more chances or else this could be short work for Chicago. PENGUINS BLANK RANGERS The Pittsburgh Penguins dominated play against the New York Rangers in Game Two, winning 3-0 and evening the series at one game apiece. Penguins G Marc-Andre Fleury stopped all 22 shots he faced, and that gives him a .914 save percentage (224 saves on 245 shots) in the playoffs -- his highest playoff save percentage since 2007-2008. D Kris Letang had an outstanding game for the Penguins, with a goal and two assists, while playing 25:35; a bit of a break through for an offensive defenceman who had one point in the previous seven playoff games. Penguins C Sidney Crosby didnt record a point, but was on top of his game, generating a game-high 10 shot attempts and on the ice for 74.1% (20 for, seven against) of 5-on-5 shot attempts. Marcel Goc was the possession ace for Pittsburgh in Game Two, on for 12 shot attempts for and just two against (85.7%). The only Rangers line to finish on the right side of the possession ledger -- and just barely (10 for, nine against) -- was the trio of Brad Richards, Carl Hagelin and Daniel Carcillo. On the other hand, the line of Mats Zuccarello, Derick Brassard and Benoit Pouliot was on for less than 15% of 5-on-5 shot attempts, while D Ryan McDonagh was on the ice for four attempts for and 19 against (17.4%). The Rangers have played four games in the past six days and looked fatigued in Game Two. With Game Three going Monday night, there isnt much time for rest, but they will need to use whatever they can on home ice to tilt the ice back in their favour. The way Game Two played out, the Penguins controlled play even more decisively than the final score indicated and the Rangers could fall behind in this series while they struggle with a more condensed schedule than their opponents. Scott Cullen can be reached at Scott.Cullen@bellmedia.ca and followed on Twitter at http://twitter.com/tsnscottcullen. For more, check out TSN Fantasy on Facebook. Doug McDermott Jersey . "Im excited just for a new start, just to see where things are going, to bring some kind of tradition back to the team and guys being excited about something new," the defensive back said during a conference call Monday after agreeing to stay with the Bombers rather than go to free agency next month. Darren Collison Jersey . "Weve given ourselves now a tougher task," said Carlyle after the Friday practice, the Toronto head coach notably chipper and upbeat throughout. "But the bottom line is we just have to win our share of games [and] not worry about what anybody else is doing. http://www.authenticbasketballshoppacers.info/cory-joseph-pacers-jersey/ .com) - SirDominic Pointer posted career highs of 24 points and seven steals to lead No. Joe Young Jersey . "Im not doing enough to help them," Durant told The Oklahoman on Monday of his 28-9 team. "Im shooting too much. Im shooting too many threes. Im not helping them out at all. Reggie Miller Jersey . Yet now its time for the most important pick of them all; the Grey Cup. The thought of going 5-0 with the correct choice is quite intoxicating, I dont think I have ever gone perfect in my CFL futuristic playoff speculations and would take great pride in guessing - I mean analyzing - correctly.Throughout the NHL playoffs, I have forecasted each round simply by using shots on goal and goaltender save percentage to come up with a baseline for the series. Its not intended to be some magical formula and doesnt apply any context, like, for example, taking injuries into account. This remedial statistical method has gone 9-5 in picks through the first three rounds. Heres a quick look at the five series that went the wrong way: In the first round, Columbus came in ahead of Pittsburgh, though that required Sergei Bobrovsky to perform better than Marc-Andre Fleury (not an impossibility given Fleurys playoff track record), but Fleury and Bobrovsky each had a .908 save percentage in Round One and Pittsburgh dominated puck possession to an extent that they did not during the regular season. Minnesota upended Colorado, in Game Seven overtime, which wasnt altogether surprising. I would have easily been able to talk myself into the upset had the Wild not gone into the series with Ilya Bryzgalov as their starting goaltender, because the Wild were a superior possession team. Darcy Kuemper returned for four games and helped tilt the series back in Minnesotas favour and Semyon Varlamov, whose regular-season play fueled the Avalanches top seed finish, was only okay in the postseason, posting a .913 save percentage in seven games. The touchiest series for this years playoffs was the San Jose-Los Angeles matchup in Round One. The forecast had the Sharks favoured by the slimmest of margins (18.15 expected goals to 18.09 expected goals) and, when they had a 3-0 series lead, that coin flip looked to be falling the right way. We know how that has turned out since that point. In the second round, the Boston Bruins were favoured over the Montreal Canadiens, and while the Bruins controlled large portions of the series, they couldnt solve Carey Price, who had a .936 save percentage in the seven-game upset. Then, in the Conference Finals, the forecast put the Chicago Blackhawks over the Los Angeles Kings, due to a goaltending advantage, because Kings goaltender Jonathan Quick hasnt been great in this years playoffs. After what was a sensational series, it was safe to say that neither team held a goaltending advantage -- both Quick and Corey Crawford struggled -- and the Kings took Game Seven in OT. So, those misses are on the record as we head into the Stanley Cup Final. The expected goals for each team in the series are determined by taking each teams shots for and against over the course of the season, as well as through the first round of the playoffs, and splitting the difference. So, for example, the New York Rangers, over the regular season and playoffs have averaged 32.4 shots on goal per game and the Los Angeles Kings have allowed 27.0 shots on goal per game; the average of those two numbers, 29.70 shots, is the number that is thenn multiplied by (1 - the opposing goaltenders save percentage) to determine an expected goals per game for the Rangers.dddddddddddd Finally, the number is multiplied by seven to indicate an expected goal total for a seven-game series. Theres no guarantee that scoring more goals in a series will result in winning four games first, but the odds certainly favour the team that scores more. So, lets see how the numbers shake out for the Final: Team SF SA Goaltender SV% Expected GF/Series Los Angeles 31.5 27.0 Jonathan Quick 0.912 16.54 N.Y. Rangers 32.4 29.1 Henrik Lundqvist 0.922 18.30 Verdict: While the Kings and Rangers are very similar in their playoff puck possession rates, the Kings were tops in the league during the regular season and ran through a more difficult gauntlet in the Western Conference to reach the Cup Final. The difference in shot rates during the regular season is pretty small, however, with the Kings earning 54.7% of the shots as the Rangers earned 53.0% of the total shots. Over the course of a game, that amounts to about one extra shot on goal; hardly the kind of difference that couldnt be overcome by better goaltending. Which brings us to the advantage to which the Rangers will cling. Lundqvist has been one of the games top goaltenders since coming into the league in 2005-2006, and is performing at a high level in this years playoffs as well, so couldnt he stop an extra shot or two per game? At the other end, Jonathan Quick has traditionally been a very good playoff goaltender in his own right, but his .906 save percentage this year has dropped Quicks all-time playoff save percentage to .922, falling fractionally behind Lundqvist. Certainly, some of the blame for this seasons save percentage can be attributed to the calibre of teams that the Kings have faced on their way to the Cup Final, with San Jose (sixth), Anaheim (first) and Chicago (second) all among the top-scoring teams in the league this season. By comparison, the Rangers got through Philadelphia (eighth), Pittsburgh (fifth) and Montreal (21st), so there is some quality of competition favouring Quick. It would be an upset if the Rangers won the series but a seven-game series, if otherwise close, can easily be decided by goaltending and, right now, its not unreasonable to hold higher expectations for Lundqvist. Lets see if King Henrik can get the job done. Scott Cullen can be reached at Scott.Cullen@bellmedia.ca and followed on Twitter at http://twitter.com/tsnscottcullen. For more, check out TSN Fantasy Sports on Facebook. ' ' '